Just 2 drinks per week less could prevent over 11,500 cancer diagnoses in 2050

13 January 2026

The Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organisation (IKNL) has calculated how many people could be spared a cancer diagnosis if the Dutch drank less alcohol. This was done in collaboration with the Trimbos Institute and the health funds that support The Healthy Generation.

A modest reduction in alcohol consumption could have a significant impact on cancer rates in the Netherlands. IKNL estimates that if everyone cuts back his of her intake by just two drinks per week that could prevent over 11,500 cancer diagnoses by 2050, equivalent to an average of 427 fewer cases each year. For men, this primarily concerns the prevention of rectal and colon cancer, and for women, breast cancer.

In addition, IKNL calculated the impact of reducing alcohol consumption by people who currently drink more than 4 glasses per week. If this group were to reduce their alcohol consumption from now on (and drink no more than 4 glasses per week by 2032), this would prevent 16,767 cancer diagnoses by 2050. That's an average of 621 cancer diagnoses per year.

The actual impact of reducing alcohol consumption on the number of preventable cancer diagnoses is likely even greater than the current calculation. This calculation only includes the seven cancer types for which there is the strongest scientific evidence that alcohol consumption plays a role. There are other cancer types where alcohol consumption very likely increases the risk, such as stomach cancer, or where it may be, such as pancreatic cancer. Therefore, the effect of reducing alcohol consumption on the number of preventable cancer diagnoses is likely underestimated.

In addition, smoking increases the harmful effects of alcohol consumption. Moreover, reducing alcohol consumption offers even broader health benefits. For example, alcohol consumption is a risk factor for more than 200 physical and mental health conditions. The health benefits are not only for the individual, but also for their loved ones and community.

Source: iknl.nl.

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